Most economists of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee have agreed that the recession ended sometime in mid-2009, when several major economic indicators hit their bottom and began to recover. But, on Monday the seven-member group has refused to mark the official date of recession’s end, considering the fact that the US economy is still too fragile for the recession to be declared officially over. although bleak, but chances are that the economy might take another plunge or that revised data could alter the timing of the economy’s low point.

“Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature,” the committee said in a statement. “Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months.”

This decision brought controversy on the committee, emphasizing the variety of opinions about the condition of U.S economy after the worst recession in decades. The delay in declaring the date of recession’s end “raises unnecessary questions about the health of the economy – that the whole committee wouldn’t think the recovery is strong enough to be able to say that it’s a recovery,” said Robert Gordon, committee member and Northwestern University economist.

The dating panel consider a lot of indicators to mark the end date of recession including gross domestic product, gross domestic income, job creation, industrial production and retail sales. Last year, all of these factors reached their trough but haven’t reached their pre-recession levels as of now.

In March there was 162,000 increase in payrolls, which is highest increase in employment over last three years. While this upswing has confirmed to many economists on the panel that the recession is over, some committee members believe that since their become a part of historical records, they must withstand later data revision or a sudden shift in economy that would indicate the continuation of the present recession rather than a new one.

The committee is very careful to guard against surprises,” said Robert Hall, Stanford University economist and chairman of the committee. “We wait until the numbers come in even if we have a fair level of certainty about what they’re going to be.”

However, Mr. Gordon argued that the latest downturn in GDP is extremely implausible at anytime over the coming year. In the second quarter of the 2009, inflation adjusted GDP has recovered significantly from its recessionary dip, and will have reached its pre-recession peak during the present quarter. As a consequence, a fall in GDP after the present quarter should be assumed as a new recession rather than a continuation of the 2007-2009 slump. Mr. Gordon thinks that the recession ended in June 2009.

The next report that could help panel reach a conclusion is likely to be the release of second quarter GDP in July, including the revisions of previous data.

Private forecasters and government agencies often depend on panel’s recession dates in their documents. If the panel finalizes mid-2009 as the end date, it would become the longest recession since the 43-month downturn during the Great Depression.

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